Black Friday beats forecasts, sees biggest rise in 4 years
Online sales increase by 11% from Thursday to Sunday; steady trend could influence Christmas season
Data released by consultancies and research companies indicate that Black Friday sales surpassed projections in online and physical stores, marking the largest increase in four years. This performance could pave the way for more positive results during the Christmas season when retailers and industries can achieve higher profit margins.
From Thursday (28) to the morning of Sunday (1, until 6:59 a.m.), online nominal revenue rose by 11% compared to the previous year, reaching approximately R$8 billion, according to service and data company Neotrust Confi.
The initial projection was for a smaller increase of 9.1%, considering the low base of comparison of 2023. Last week, consultancies and sector associations interviewed for the report anticipated growth between 5% and 10%, depending on the study.
In 2022 and 2023, the figures fell short of expectations. In 2021, sales in November dropped by 4.2%, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics’ retail survey.
On Saturday (30), the acceleration was stronger, with a 22% increase compared to the same date in 2023, totaling R$1.93 billion in revenue. In terms of units, the increase was 21%. On Friday (29), the official Black Friday, online expansion reached 8.4%, aligning with market projections. The study was conducted in partnership with ClearSale.
According to Valor’s calculations, the 2024 increase represents the highest rate of online expansion for a Black Friday since 2020, when the pandemic led consumers to shop online.
This level of average spending includes segments such as fashion and food, which are less reliant on credit and less affected by recent interest rate hikes.
Brick-and-mortar stores, which don’t always perform well even when digital sales soar during Black Friday, might have experienced a more optimistic season.
According to Linx, a leading technology provider for the retail sector, fashion and footwear outlets saw a 13% increase during the promotional week. That happened after Asian platforms, such as Shein, were subject to a 20% import tax on items below $50, as per the law effective in August. On Friday, revenue growth reached 23%.
The payment of the first installment of the 13th salary on Black Friday, a situation not seen since 2019, partially explains the performance in both physical and digital stores. Since the event’s inception in Brazil in 2010, the 13th salary was paid on Black Friday only in 2013, 2014, and 2019.
Despite increased debt pressures on Brazilian budgets, consultants believe the stability in delinquency rates, household income gains, and the rise in formal employment in 2024 positively influenced the figures. According to the Central Bank, household credit delinquency over 12 months remains stable. The real average income rose by 7% from July to September.
Former Casas Bahia and Carrefour executive Abel Ornelas emphasized the need to assess whether Black Friday was profitable. “The event costs are high, and it’s crucial to determine if they were covered or if there was a loss. Christmas will be the opportunity to capitalize and truly increase margins.”
As Valor previously reported last week, there were signs of improving demand since the start of the month. The main market question is whether this momentum will continue into Christmas, as some consumers may have made early holiday shopping during Black Friday. Additionally, the potential risk of price increases due to a weaker real against the dollar, which could make goods ordered for sale more expensive, still looms.
By Adriana Mattos — São Paulo via Valor International