Brazil may return to more robust economic growth in 2020 after a disappointing 2019. Growth may cross the 2% thresh-old, as investment recovers, led by a resurgence in housing. Business expectations have improved. Inflation remains under control, ensuring that low interest rates will remain at or below the current 4.50%. We may also see continued improvement in fiscal accounts, slowing government debt growth to sustainable rates. 2019 saw significant financial outflows, leading to a sharp depreciation of the Real, despite interventions by the Central Bank. 2020 may see a reversal of these flows.
How 2020 plays out depends upon economic policy continuity and global developments, and the risk of political stalemate in Brazil. The unsettled political environment domestically and internationally was a key uncertainty in 2019, impeding the economic outlook and capital inflows. Hopefully 2020 will overcome these constraints.
Stay on top of what happened on our traditional semi-annual outlook with a distinguished panel of experts to explore Brazil’s economic, business, and political future for 2020 and beyond.
Paulo Vieira da Cunha, Partner, VERBANK Consulting, LLC
Alberto Ramos, Head of the Latin America Economic Research, Global Investment Research Division, Goldman Sachs
Alexis Crow, Advisory Lead, Geopolitical Investing Practice, PwC
Marcelo Salomon, Chief Economist – Global Strategist, BZ Gestão de Investimentos Ltda
Samar Maziad, Vice President – Senior Analyst Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s
Thiago Aragão, Director of Strategy, Arko Advice
June 30, 2020
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