About the event

Program Sponsor

Brazil faces an uncertain outlook marked by the COVID crisis and the lack of fiscal space to continue to expand government spending and lowering taxes to support the economy. Those policies enacted earlier in 2020 protected income more than employment and most analysts presume that income support will diminish in 2021. Will employment recover enough before then to sustain growth in consumption? If not, will exports and investment pick up the slack? Even if investment comes first from a rebuilding of inventories, would it fuel improved confidence? Is this return preconditioned on progress with structural reforms? Is the tax reform just sent to congress sufficient to allay naysayers on reform? To what extent does the return of confidence depend more on the likely turbulent political outlook than on stimulus policies? And how will macroeconomic management proceed? How will the government adhere to the budget ceiling given spending pressures on an administration that has problems in congress? To what extent can monetary policy substitute for fiscal stimulus? Are we close to an effective interest rate lower bound where lower rates become counterproductive given ensuing financial and exchange rate instability? These are some of the questions raised by investors with no easy answers. Our distinguished panel helped clarify the current context and outlined possible answers.


Paulo Vieira da Cunha, Partner, Verbank Consulting, LLC


Thiago Aragão, Partner, ARKO Advice

Fernando Honorato Barbosa, Chief Economist, Bradesco

Drausio Giacomelli, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Deutsche Bank Securities

Zeina Latif, Consultant, Gibraltar Consultoria

Lisa Schineller, Managing Director, S&P Global Ratings

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