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2023 Brazil: Economic & Political Outlook
There is a positive sentiment about Brazil, backed by recent data. Q2/23 saw a higher-than-expected growth rate of 3.6% (SAAR), driven by increased net investment. Unemployment has decreased, and exports are on the rise, primarily due to the expanding agribusiness sector. While there is consensus on a slowdown in the coming year, forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have been revised upwards. Inflation has been brought under control, and there is optimism for further interest rate cuts, potentially bringing the base rate below double digits.
The fiscal concerns that worried investors at the beginning of the year have been addressed. Although not without flaws, these measures have sufficiently alleviated fears of a debt crisis and have led to improved credit ratings. There is also the possibility of a significant tax reform bill being passed still in 2023. The return of a pro-democracy, pro-environment, and pro-multilateral administration has been warmly received by foreign investors.
The problems remain, nonetheless. Potential GDP estimates are below 2%. Increased public spending and uncertainties surrounding new revenue measures could result in higher debt-to-GDP ratios, potentially nearing 75%. The administration’s flexibility is constrained by an activist Congress that seeks quid-pro-quos in election spending. Furthermore, the administration’s tendency toward populist approaches and its support of discredited developmentalist ideas undermine its pro-investment agenda.
These concerns, among others, will take center stage at our “Brazil: Economic and Political Outlook,” which will unite an esteemed panel of analysts to assess and share their insights on Brazil’s economic and political prospects.
Join us for the upcoming installment of this informative and enlightening biannual program.
Format: In-person only
White & Case LLP | Quorum Conference center
1221 Avenue of the Americas – 2nd Floor (6th Avenue, entrance on 49th Street), New York, New York 10020
Paulo Vieira da Cunha, Partner, VERBANK Consulting, LLC
Drausio Giacomelli, Head of EM Research, Deutsche Bank Securities
More information to follow.
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