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2024 Brazil Summit

Organized for over two decades, the Brazil Summit is one of the most important events in the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce’s annual calendar. Parallel to the spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF, the Chamber brings together in New York government officials, business leaders, members of the international financial community, and academia to engage in meaningful exchanges and discuss and evaluate key issues that affect Brazil’s economy and markets.

 

There is a way to look at the Brazilian economy today with confidence. The macroeconomic scenario is largely balanced, if weak on its fiscal side. Agribusiness is booming and leaps ahead with fast productivity growth. New frontiers are opening in energy production and exports. In part as a result, external accounts are solid and with good foundations for a structural real strengthening of the currency in a global environment with lower real rates. The combination is attractive for foreign investors. Nevertheless, in recent months, foreigners have moved money out of local markets, in both fixed income and equity, and, on a net basis, local investors continue to prefer to invest abroad. It is not clear why.

Although the economy performed better than expected in Q1/24, there are signs that, as widely anticipated, 2024 will be a more difficult year than 2023. In agriculture, output could decline. Overall, growth will be slower (about 2%) and the labor market, which remains buoyant delivering with the addition of increased social transfers and an uptick in credit markets gains in disposable income, will turn. This is likely to come with increased constraints on the fiscal side, as revenues disappoint and the administration is forced to revisit its targets, admitting a larger deficit.

Concerns are numerous. This more adverse outlook could prompt the administration to intensify its reach into the state enterprises (notably Petrobras) and banks (notably BNDES) and even, directly, into recently privatized large enterprises. Despite valuable efforts to deepen reforms (most notably in the VAT reform), the administration may stray into electoral tactics as the November municipal and mid-term elections approach. These moves could damage the already tense relations with Congress, with a costly impact on governability.

We had a stellar group of analysts who discussed these and related topics influencing the expectations and prospects for Brazil in the months ahead.

Panel I – Brazilian Agribusiness: Funding Options to Finance its Growth

Moderator:

Lúcio Feijó Lopes, Founder, Feijó Lopes Advogados

 

SPEAKERS:

Thatyanne Gasparotto, Director of Sustainable Finance, Natixis

John Guzman, Partner, White & Case

Rogério Martins, Managing Director – Brazil, AMERRA

Panel II – Brazil: Economic & Political Outlook

Moderators:

Paulo Vieira da Cunha, Former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Brazil; Partner, VERBANK Consulting, LLC

Drausio Giacomelli, Managing Director, Deutsche Bank Securities

 

SPEAKERS:

Thiago de Aragão, CEO, ARKO International Affairs

Cassiana Fernandez, Head of Latin America Economic Research, JP Morgan

Guilherme Marone, EM Strategist, BlueCrest Asset Management

Carlos Sequeira, Managing Director, BTG Pactual

 

View speaker bios.

 

AGENDA:
8:30 – 9:00 AM: Registration, Breakfast, and Networking
9:00 – 10:00 AM: Opening Remarks and Panel I
10:00 – 10:30 AM: Q&A
10:30 – 10:40 AM: Coffee Break
10:40 AM – 12:00 PM: Panel II
12:00 – 12:30 PM: Q&A and Closing Remarks

 

Location:
White & Case LLP | Quorum Conference Center
1221 Avenue of the Americas – 2nd Floor (6th Avenue, entrance on 49th Street) New York, New York 10020

 

 

 

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