Despite the turbulence this year, private equity and venture capital investments in Brazil grew by more than 13% in the first half of 2022 alone. With a stable political and economic outlook, along with a devalued currency and investors moving away from other emerging markets, Brazil is a prime target for investments in 2023.
New Government in 2023
On October 30, 2022, former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) was elected as Brazil’s next president. Despite receiving the largest number of votes ever for any candidate in Brazil’s democratic history, Lula beat the incumbent president Jair Messias Bolsonaro by the smallest margin ever in a Brazilian presidential election; 50.9% to 49.1%.1 Lula will be sworn in on January 1, 2023 for his third time, after having served as president from 2003 to 2010. A founding member of the Workers’ Party (PT), Lula is seen as a left-wing politician, which is diametrically opposed to Bolsonaro, who is the leader of Brazil’s far right political movement.
President Lula will be checked by a newly elected Congress and Senate that are among the most conservative ever. President Bolsonaro was able to elect numerous supporters to both houses, who will work actively to oppose any radical policies that Lula could propose. While this will create some difficulty for Lula to approve much needed reforms, such as simplifying the country’s tax code, it should create some stability, which generally favors investment. President Lula’s team has started providing glimpses into what his future cabinet will look like. His economic team is expected to include well-known economists with successful track records in fostering growth and stability, which will help ease tensions in the market. In the first week after his election, the Brazilian stock exchange climbed 3%2 and the Brazilian Real increased by 4.5% compared to the U.S. Dollar,3 showing that there is some optimism now that the elections are over.
By Carlos Flávio Lopes, Managing Director via StoneTurn