[The REDD Insight is a daily market comment produced by senior members of the REDD Intelligence Latin America newsroom. The views expressed in this report are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily either
shared or endorsed by REDD.]
“I told Putin that Brazil supports any country that seeks peace. And that’s his intention.” — Jair Bolsonaro, talking to reporters after meeting with the Russian leader Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shock waves through financial
markets. For Latin American countries, there is an upside of this terrible conflict, but the potential downside could be very steep. As commodity prices surge ― especially oil, gas and wheat, which are mostly produced by the two countries in armed conflict — some countries will see higher revenues on oil sales. Ecuador serves as an example. In a recent interview broadcast on social media, President Guillermo Lasso said the recent increase in oil prices could imply USD 25 in additional revenue per barrel for Ecuador. So far this year, he added, oil price hikes have translated to USD 100m in extra revenues for the country.
Assuming prices stay constant, Ecuador could pull in additional revenues of USD 1.7bn this year, according to an analysis from local economists Walter Spurrier and Alberto Acosta Burneo. Still, Lasso pointed out during his interview that his government would “not create permanent expenditures with temporary revenues.” But for companies like state-owned Pemex and Petrobras, higher oil prices will translate into higher fuel prices, eating into some gains from the rally.
by Maria Fernanda Blaser, Carla Dager and Edgar Sigler via REDD